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金价大跌利好奢侈品珠宝商
Falling gold price a ‘positive’ for luxury brands

2020-9-6 20:03| 发布者: 寒夜孤星| 查看: 318| 评论: 0

摘要: Luxury jewellers face challenges on numerous fronts — but a battered gold price is not one of them, making the sector one of the few winners amid a global commodities rout.The yellow metal had a long ...
Falling gold price a ‘positive’ for luxury brands
Luxury jewellers face challenges on numerous fronts — but a battered gold price is not one of them, making the sector one of the few winners amid a global commodities rout.

The yellow metal had a long bull run at the beginning of the 21st century, steadily climbing from 1999 onwards and soaring after the financial crisis hit in 2008. However, the market had peaked by the end of 2011, and this summer began hitting multi-year lows, spurred by falling demand from China and India as well as by a strengthening dollar and the prospect of rising US interest rates.

Although gold prices began climbing again in August as investors grappled with a global equity sell-off, the price is still about 40 per cent down from its historic peak of $1,900.20 in May 2011.

How far in advance top jewellers purchase gold supplies varies, but the average across the industry is approximately one year. This means that although the beneficial effect of a lower gold price for the manufacturing side will not be felt immediately, it will still flatter margins eventually.

Swiss luxury goods group Richemont, owner of jewellers including Cartier, Van Cleef & Arpels and Piaget, says the cost of craftsmanship in assembling its $17,000 rings and $10,000 necklaces far outweighs the cost of the raw materials each piece requires.

Thomas Chauvet, an analyst at Citi, agrees. “While Richemont and Swatch will continue to benefit from lower gold prices, let’s not overestimate this impact,” he says.

Judged against where it was in 2008 and 2011, the gold price looks set to remain depressed for now, meaning jewellers should breathe a sigh of relief that commodities are not added to their list of headaches, which include currency gyrations, the push to reduce corruption and ostentatious gift-giving among Chinese officials — which has hit sales of fine watches — and a slowing Chinese economy. But there could yet be a worrying twist.

A big factor in the reduced gold price has been curtailed demand from China, a symptom of strain in the country’s economy. This is potentially making life for jewellers in that market increasingly difficult, even if the cost of producing goods is now slightly cheaper than it was five years ago.

Global gold demand dropped 12 per cent to 914.9 tonnes in the three months to June, a six-year low, according to the World Gold Council, an industry body. The fall was chiefly the result of weakness in the key markets of India and China. In the case of India, this was linked to seasonal factors, such as the small number of days considered lucky for a wedding, but for China the drop was caused by what is becoming a prolonged period of poor growth and stock market turmoil.

奢侈品珠宝商在很多领域面临挑战,但金价下跌并非这些挑战之一,反而让奢侈品行业成为全球大宗商品大跌中为数不多的赢家之一。

从21世纪初开始,黄金一直处于长期牛市。金价自1999年来稳步上涨,在2008年金融危机爆发之后大幅上涨。然而,金价在2011年底前见顶,在今年夏季开始屡创多年新低,背后因素在于中国和印度需求的减少,以及美元走强和美国加息预期。

尽管由于投资者努力应对全球股票抛售,金价在今年8月再次攀升,但当前金价仍比2011年5月创下的1990.20美元的历史高点低了约40%。

顶级珠宝商提前多久购买黄金不尽相同,但全行业平均提前时间约为1年。这意味着,尽管金价对生产商的好处不会立刻显现,但最终仍将提高利润率。

卡地亚(Cartier)、梵克雅宝(Van Cleef & Arpels)和伯爵(Piaget)等珠宝品牌的持有人、瑞士奢侈品集团历峰(Richemont)表示,其1.7万美元戒指和1万美元项链的制作成本远远超过了每件商品所需原材料的成本。

花旗(Citi)分析师托马?肖伟(Thomas Chauvet)表示,“尽管历峰和斯沃琪(Swatch)将继续受益于金价下跌,但我们不要过高估计这一影响。”

跟2008年和2011年的行情相比,金价目前似乎会保持在低水平上,意味着珠宝商应该会松一口气了:大宗商品并未进入他们的“头疼清单”。令他们头疼的问题包括货币波动、中国致力于打击官员腐败和赠送豪华礼品的行动——这冲击了名贵手表的销售——以及中国经济增长放缓。但是,可能还存在一个令人困扰的问题。

金价下跌背后的一个重要因素是中国需求减弱,这正是中国经济承压的一个征兆。这可能让中国市场上的珠宝商面临日益艰难的处境,即便如今的生产成本比5年前略低。

行业机构世界黄金协会(World Gold Council)的数据显示,在截至6月的3个月内,世界黄金需求下降了12%,降至914.9吨的六年新低。这主要是关键市场印度和中国需求疲弱的结果。至于印度,这跟季节性因素相关,比如被认为适合结婚的日子很少;但对中国而言,这主要是长期的经济增长疲软以及股市动荡所致。

译者/邢嵬


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