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欧佩克八年来首次同意减产石油
Opec agrees on oil output cut at Algiers meeting

2020-9-29 17:09| 发布者: 悠儿| 查看: 63| 评论: 0

摘要: Some of the world’s biggest oil producers have agreed to cut production for the first time in eight years, sending crude prices higher by more than 6 per cent.After more than four hours of talks in A ...
Opec agrees on oil output cut at Algiers meeting
Some of the world’s biggest oil producers have agreed to cut production for the first time in eight years, sending crude prices higher by more than 6 per cent.

After more than four hours of talks in Algeria on Wednesday Opec committed itself to reducing output to between 32.5m barrels a day and 33m b/d, according to ministers.

The agreement surprised oil traders who thought a consensus would be difficult to reach because of divisions between Saudi Arabia and Iran, two of Opec’s largest and most influential members. Brent crude jumped $2.84 a barrel to $48.85.

The push marks the first co-ordinated action to bolster crude prices that have battered the finances of producer economies since the oil collapse began two years ago. The last time Opec cut production was during the financial crisis in 2008.

It is also a shift in the Saudi-led Opec strategy of pumping flat out to maintain market share and put pressure on high-cost producers such as US shale drillers.

But the lack of detail on how much each producer will limit output, if at all, will raise questions among oil analysts and other market observers on the execution and success of any deal in easing an oversupplied market.

The new production target is a decrease of between 240,000 b/d and 740,000 b/d from the 33.24m b/d the cartel pumped in August, according to analysts’ estimates compiled by Opec.

Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu, Nigeria’s minister of state for petroleum resources, said Opec would set up a committee to work out how the reduction in production will be split among members. It will report back to the group in November, which is when Opec plans to hold its next formal ministerial meeting in Vienna.

The amount of oil taken off the market will determine how successful the deal is in alleviating a supply glut. Oil analysts and people familiar with Saudi oil policy believe between 700,000 and 1m b/d needed to be taken off the market to have a meaningful impact on global supplies and prices.

“For the [oil price] rally to be sustained, however, details must be given on how the cuts will be implemented. A collective cut will not carry much weight in the market,” said Amrita Sen at consultancy Energy Aspects.

Saudi Arabia, Iran and other ministers had said before the meeting any talks would be informal with the view to reaching a binding agreement over the next few months. But as the discussions on Wednesday continued they decided to make the gathering a formal meeting of Opec.

“We have a very good deal,” said Opec’s secretary-general, Mohammad Barkindo, with his thumbs up. The agreement was viewed positively by equity markets. The S&P; 500 energy sector index leapt 4.5 per cent, with oil producers ConocoPhillips up 7 per cent, ExxonMobil up 4.4 per cent and Chevron 3.2 per cent higher.

Mohammed bin Saleh al-Sada, Qatar’s energy minister and president of Opec, said after the meeting co-ordinated action was needed as excess supplies were taking longer than expected to ease, keeping the oil market under pressure.

“The rebalancing was going to happen anyway but we needed to accelerate,” he said.

Saudi Arabia had previously made its involvement in any deal to freeze or cut output conditional on the participation of its fierce regional rival Iran. Tehran had argued it should be allowed to ramp up production to at least 4m b/d after years of restrictions under western sanctions. A previous attempt to limit production in April was scuttled by the division.

This week the kingdom showed a softer stance saying privately it would be willing to join a co-ordinated cut to production of up to 1m b/d should Iran freeze its production, said one person familiar with Saudi policymaking.

Khalid al-Falih, the kingdom’s energy minister, offered a more conciliatory tone, conceding that Iran, Nigeria and Libya — which have variously lost output because of violence in their countries or sanctions — would not be as tightly bound by any deal to cap output.

The kingdom, ahead of the meeting, had been assessing various scenarios that would see it bear the brunt of a co-ordinated cut to production should Iran freeze its production.

The main tensions had centred on the level at which Iran would curb its output. It is unclear if this has been fully resolved or if Wednesday’s discussions had laid the groundwork for a more solid agreement at the group’s next official meeting.

“Opec is moving in the right direction, but this is not over,” said Jamie Webster, a Fellow at the Center on Global Energy Policy. “Finding numbers for each producers’ production and following through with cuts means there is still a way to go.”

全球部分最大石油生产国八年来首次同意削减产量,此举令原油价格攀升逾6%。

根据各国石油部长的说法,周三在阿尔及利亚开展过逾四小时的磋商之后,欧佩克(Opec)承诺自身要将日产量减至3250万桶到3300万桶之间。

这一协议让石油交易商十分震惊,他们本以为,由于欧佩克最有影响的两个最大国家沙特和伊朗间的分歧,这次会晤很难达成共识。消息传来,布伦特(Brent)基准原油每桶跃升2.84美元,至每桶48.85美元。

此举是两年前油价开始崩盘以来,产油国首次协调一致地采取措施提振原油价格。此前,低迷的油价已对多个产油经济体的财政造成连续打击。欧佩克上次削减石油产量,是在2008年金融危机期间。

此举也标志着以沙特为首的欧佩克改变了策略,不再通过竭尽全力采油的方式,维持市场份额并对美国页岩油开采商等高成本石油生产商施加压力。

不过,公告缺少每个产油国将限制多少产量的细节——如果真的要限产的话,这会令石油业分析师和其他市场观察人士质疑:任何旨在缓解这个供过于求市场的协议,会不会真的付诸实施并取得成功。

根据欧佩克编制的分析师估计数值,新的产量目标将日产量从欧佩克8月份的3324万桶减少了24万-74万桶。

尼日利亚石油部长伊曼纽尔?伊笔?卡希库(Emmanuel Ibe Kachikwu)表示,欧佩克会成立一个委员会,制定减产量在成员国中的分配方案。欧佩克计划于11月份在维也纳召开下次正式部长级会议,届时该委员会将向欧佩克报告进展。

该协议能否成功缓解供应过剩状况,取决于市场中减少的石油流入量。石油分析师及熟悉沙特石油政策的人士认为,要想对全球石油供应和价格产生显著影响,石油日产量需减少70到100万桶。

译者/简易


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