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欧洲债市“失火” 亚洲股市遭殃-酷悠

Europe Fears Rattle Asia-cuyoo

发布者:admin 时间:2020-05-06 23:13点击:
投 资者对欧洲债券市场的担忧情绪升温,这给业已低迷的亚洲股市带来了进一步冲击,同时他们也在掂量亚洲意外强劲的经济复苏是否将好景不长。 周二欧美股市的抛压令亚太股市周三大多走低,扩大了中国及周边市场今年的股市跌幅。 香港恒生指数周三跌2.1%,收于
Jitters over Europe's growing debt problems are adding to Asia's stock-market malaise, as investors wonder whether the region's surprisingly strong recovery has already peaked.

Asia's stocks were mostly lower Wednesday on the back of a selloff in U.S. and European stocks Tuesday, adding to losses so far this year in markets in and around China.

Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index fell 2.1% to 20327.54 and is now down 7.1% since the start of the year. Taiwan's main index fell nearly 3% and is now off 6% for the year. Mainland China's benchmark Shanghai Composite, which rose 0.8%, is off 13% in 2010. India's Sensitive Index, or Sensex, was down 0.3% Wednesday and has lost 2.2% for the year.

Japan and South Korea, closed for holidays Wednesday, are among the few exceptions this year, up 4.9% and 2.1% respectively.

Asia's slack stock performance this year contrasts with its world-beating economic growth. China's economy expanded 11.9% in the first quarter and its massive bank lending in 2009 drove the region's recovery. Measures of manufacturing and industrial production are near highs.

Duncan Wooldridge, chief Asia economist at UBS in Hong Kong, believes Europe's woes won't hurt Asia directly unless there is an actual default. But the uncertainty has an impact. 'It's not helpful, that's for sure,' he says.

The contagion of Greece's problems to elsewhere in Europe could crimp trade with Asia. The weak euro is already making Asian goods more expensive in Europe. The euro has fallen 13% against the South Korean won this year, 11% against the Singapore dollar and 9.6% against the Chinese yuan, which tracks the U.S. dollar. Hong Kong and Singapore, both trading hubs, count euro-area exports as 13.2% and 11% of GDP, respectively, according to Nomura economists. China's euro-area exports total 3.6% of GDP.

For now, a bigger concern is that Asia's future growth will slow as policy makers tighten the monetary screws. China has made several moves to cool its housing market. It restricted bank activity for the third time this year on Sunday by raising the percentage of deposits banks must hold against their loans.

At the same time, some early signs are showing that the recovery in Asia is beginning to pull back from the roaring post-crisis bounce over the past two quarters.

'What you are seeing now is leading indicators are confirming you are going to end up with a slowdown in the second half of the year,' Mr. Wooldridge says. He calls it 'mid-cycle correction in growth,' not a 'deterioration that ends in recession.'

Take South Korea, a bellwether for the region because of its trade-dependent economy and strong links to China. Leading indicators there for consumer sentiment, business sentiment, construction orders and machinery orders have all started to flag.

It is less likely that Europe's problems will spread directly to Asia's financial systems. Most of Asia has diligently accumulated foreign-exchange reserves since the Asian financial crisis in 1997-1998 and private-sector debt remains relatively low.

'Thank goodness Asia has spent the last 10 years paying down its foreign and public debt,' DBS economist David Carbon writes in a research note. That 'should help it weather the storm with relative ease.'

And the few Asian countries that do have high debt, such as Japan, India and Taiwan, borrow mostly domestically. That puts them in a safer position than Argentina was in 2001 when it owed billions in dollar-denominated debt to foreigners, Standard and Poor's credit analyst Elena Okorotchenko says.

Optimists say Asia's stock slowdown this year is typical at the stage in an economic recovery where governments concerned about inflation begin to rein in easy-money policies. Investors get nervous that policy makers could go too far and snuff out growth.

'This is a bit like 2004,' says Shane Oliver, head of investment strategy at AMP Capital Investors, an Australian fund manager with about $100 billion in assets. After a sharp 2003 run-up in stocks following the previous slump, markets paused as they considered whether tighter policy in China and the U.S. would kill the party. Markets went on to have a three-year bull market.

This time around, Asian stocks zoomed ahead of the world in early 2009 and several markets peaked in the summer and fall as Chinese officials began to signal the tightening trend was beginning.

Mr. Oliver recently trimmed his stock holdings overall as U.S. markets hit post-crisis highs. But he is betting Asian stocks will eventually find their footing, as they did in the bull market from the second half of 2004.

Around Asia, the Philippine stock market sank 3.5% as news of technical glitches detected in tens of thousands of vote-counting machines ahead of next week's elections raised fears that the polls may be delayed. The slide in share prices came even as election commissioner Gregorio Larrazabal was quoted by an Agence France-Presse report as saying he truly believed 'we will have an election on May 10.'

Shares of Ayala Land fell 3.6%, Bank of the Philippine Islands lost 4.5% and Aboitiz Power shed 4.9%.

In Jakarta, the JSX index tumbled 3.8% after Finance Minister Sri Mulyani Indrawati resigned to take up a position at the World Bank. Market participants consider Sri Mulyani to be a key figure in Indonesia's economic recovery after the 2008 global economic slowdown.

Resource stocks fell sharply across the region on a sharp retreat in commodity prices. Oil Search gave up 2.6% and Newcrest Mining shed 1% in Sydney, Aluminum Corp. of China lost 3.2% and Cnooc slumped 4.6% in Hong Kong, and Cairn India shrank 2.8% in Mumbai.

Mining heavyweights BHP Billiton and Rio Tinto recouped some of their recent losses in Sydney. BHP edged 0.4% higher, and Rio advanced 1.8%. But overall, the benchmark Australian index fell for the eighth time in nine sessions as it lost 1.3% to end at 4674.03, its lowest close since Feb. 26.

'It's a bit of a bloodbath today,' said IG Markets institutional dealer Chris Weston in Sydney. 'We are seeing aggressive short-selling of materials and other high-beta names because there's still no clarity on the resources tax and the European debt crisis, and Chinese manufacturing looks to be slowing down. It's a perfect storm, but we've got great value in certain stocks, which could trigger broker upgrades.'

The financial sector came under fire around the region, as HSBC Holdings dropped 1.9% and Industrial & Commercial Bank of China fell 2.3% in Hong Kong, DBS Group slid 1.5% in Singapore, and ICICI Bank dropped 1.3% in Mumbai.

The Hang Seng Index fell for the sixth time in seven sessions, closing at its lowest level since Feb. 19, while the Shanghai Composite rose for the second time in three days.

Taiwanese financials declined but still outperformed the broader market after Premier Wu Den-yih said Tuesday that Taiwan hopes to sign a trade pact with China in early June to remove bilateral tariffs. Fubon Financial lost 1.3%, and Cathay Financial fell 1.4%.

Alex Frangos
 本文涉及股票或公司
中国铝业股份有限公司(简称:中国铝业)
英文名称:Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.
总部地点:中国大陆
上市地点:上海证交所
股票代码:601600
汇丰控股有限公司(简称:汇丰控股)
英文名称:HSBC Holdings PLC
总部地点:英国
上市地点:香港交易所
股票代码:0005
中国海洋石油有限公司(简称:中国海洋石油)
英文名称:CNOOC Ltd.
总部地点:香港
上市地点:香港交易所
股票代码:0883
中国铝业股份有限公司
英文名称:Aluminum Co. of China Ltd.
总部地点:中国大陆
上市地点:香港交易所
股票代码:2600
富邦金融控股股份有限公司(简称:富邦金控)
英文名称:Fubon Financial Holding Co.
总部地点:台湾
上市地点:台湾证交所
股票代码:2881
BHP Billiton Ltd. (ADS)
总部地点:澳大利亚(Australia)
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:BHP
力拓股份有限公司
英文名称:Rio Tinto PLC (ADS)
总部地点:英国
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:RTP
中国海洋石油有限公司(简称:中国海洋石油)
英文名称:CNOOC Ltd. (ADS)
总部地点:香港
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:CEO
Bhp Billiton Plc (ads)
总部地点:英国
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:BBL
汇丰控股有限公司(简称:汇丰控股)
英文名称:HSBC Holdings PLC (ADS)
总部地点:英国
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:HBC
中国铝业股份有限公司
英文名称:Aluminum Co. of China Ltd. (ADS)
总部地点:中国大陆
上市地点:纽约证交所
股票代码:ACH
Cathay Financial Group
总部地点:台湾
Bhp Billiton Ltd.
总部地点:澳大利亚(Australia)
上市地点:澳大利亚证券交易所
股票代码:BHP
Rio Tinto Ltd.
总部地点:澳大利亚(Australia)
上市地点:澳大利亚证券交易所
股票代码:RIO
Newcrest Mining Ltd.
总部地点:澳大利亚(Australia)
上市地点:澳大利亚证券交易所
股票代码:NCM
资者对欧洲债券市场的担忧情绪升温,这给业已低迷的亚洲股市带来了进一步冲击,同时他们也在掂量亚洲意外强劲的经济复苏是否将好景不长。

周二欧美股市的抛压令亚太股市周三大多走低,扩大了中国及周边市场今年的股市跌幅。

香港恒生指数周三跌2.1%,收于20327.54点,今年迄今已累计下挫7.1%。台湾证交所加权指数跌幅近3%,年内累计下跌6%。虽然中国基准上证综合指数收盘涨0.8%,但年内跌幅已高达13%。印度Sensex指数收盘跌0.3%,年内跌幅报2.2%。

日本和韩国股市今年的强劲表现使其成为了亚洲市场中的少见特例,它们的基准股指年内涨幅分别达到了4.9%和2.1%。日韩股市周三因公共假期休市。

亚洲股市的黯淡走势和它们举世瞩目的经济增长形成了鲜明对照。今年第一季度中国经济增速高达11.9%,而且通过去年的大规模银行放贷推动了整个区域的复苏。其制造业及工业生产指标均攀升至高位。

瑞银(UBS)驻香港的首席亚洲经济学家吴德恺(Duncan Wooldridge)认为欧洲当前危机不会直接伤及亚洲,除非真的发生债券违约。但是这种不确定性的确给市场带来了冲击。吴德恺说,这显然不能对股市构成利好。

希腊危机在欧洲其他地区的蔓延可能会拖累亚洲出口贸易。欧元走软已经推高了当地市场上亚洲出口商品的售价。欧元兑韩圆和新加坡元分别下跌了13%和11%,兑盯住美元的人民币也下跌了9.6%。野村(Nomura Securities)经济学家估算,在贸易枢纽香港和新加坡,面向欧洲的出口为其GDP分别贡献了13.2%和11%,对欧出口在中国GDP中所占比重为3.6%。

眼下,一个更大的担忧是随着决策者收紧货币政策,亚洲未来的经济增长可能有所放缓。为了给房地产市场降温,中国政府连续出招。在刚刚过去的周日,中国年内第三次提高了银行存款准备金率。

与此同时,一些初步迹象显示,在刚刚过去两个季度中,亚洲从经济危机中的快速复苏已经开始有所放缓。

吴德恺说,我们现在能看出的一点是,一些领先工业指标都明确显示出今年下半年经济将出现减速。他说现在是经济增长回调过程的中期阶段,这不会最终走向衰退。

以韩国为例,这个国家依赖出口且与中国联系紧密,因此成为了亚洲经济的领头羊。当地消费者信心、商业景气、建筑业及机械订单等一些领先指标都已开始出现回落。

欧洲危机直接蔓延到亚洲金融系统的可能性不大。自从1997-1998年的亚洲金融危机爆发以后,大多数亚洲国家都在努力积累外汇,而且私营领域的负债规模相对较低。

星展(DBS)经济学家柯大任(David Carbon)在一份研究报告中指出,多亏过去十年中亚洲国家一直致力于削减外债和公共债务规模,这应该会帮助他们比较容易地度过当前风暴。

也有日本、印度和台湾等少数几个亚洲经济体债务水平居高不下,但其负债大多是内债。标准普尔(Standard and Poor)信贷分析师欧克罗契柯(Elena Okorotchenko)说,它们的境况要比2001年时的阿根廷安全许多,当时阿根廷向外国投资者欠下了数十亿美元的外债。

乐观人士说,今年亚洲股市涨势放缓,这是经济复苏期间特定阶段会出现的典型现象。在这个阶段,对通货膨胀心存担忧的政府会开始收紧宽松的货币政策。投资者担心决策人士可能收的太过、会遏制增长。

澳大利亚基金管理公司AMP Capital Investors投资战略主管奥利弗(Shane Oliver)说,现在的情况有些像2004年。2003年股市继此前的低迷后大幅上涨,但随着市场猜测中国和美国更严格的政策是否会扼杀涨势,市场上涨势头暂停下来。之后市场经历了三年的牛市。该公司管理着约1,000亿美元的资产。

这次,亚洲股市在2009年初时领涨全球股市,数个国家的股市在夏季达到高点,然后随着中国官员开始暗示收紧趋势的开始,股市纷纷下挫。

随着美国股市连续触及危机后高点,奥利弗最近整体减持。不过,他预测亚洲股市最终将站稳脚跟,就像2004年下半年开始的牛市中的情况一样。

在亚洲,菲律宾下周即将举行大选,然而有数万台计票机被查出存在技术故障,人们担心投票可能要延期,菲律宾股市随之跌了3.5%。即使是法新社(Agence France-Presse)援引选委会专员拉尔扎波(Gregorio Larrazabal)的话报导说,他真的相信“我们将在5月10日举行大选”,股市依然下挫。

Ayala Land股票跌了3.6%,菲律宾群岛银行(Bank of the Philippine Islands)跌了4.5%,Aboitiz Power跌4.9%。

在印尼首都雅加达,印尼财政部长英拉瓦蒂(Sri Mulyani Indrawati)辞职转而任职世界银行(World Bank)后,JSX指数跌了3.8%。市场参与者认为英拉瓦蒂是印尼在2008年全球经济低迷之后实现经济复苏的重要人物。

由于大宗商品价格暴跌,亚洲各地资源类股普遍大幅下挫。悉尼股市Oil Search下跌2.6%,Newcrest Mining跌了1%。香港股市中国铝业公司跌3.2%,中国海洋石油跌4.6%。孟买股市Cairn India跌2.8%。

悉尼股市矿业巨头必和必拓(BHP Billiton)和力拓(Rio Tinto)收复了最近的部分失地。必和必拓小幅上涨0.4%,力拓涨1.8%。不过整体来看,基准澳大利亚指数在九个交易日中出现第八天下跌。周二跌至4674.03点,跌幅1.3%,创下2月26日以来的最低收盘点位。

差价合同提供商IG Markets驻悉尼机构交易商韦斯顿(Chris Weston)说,现在有点像是大屠杀;由于资源税仍不明了,欧洲的债务危机,再加上中国制造业看起来开始放缓,材料类股和其他波动性较大的股票出现了严重的卖空;这是一场完美风暴,不过某些股票有很大的价值,有可能会引发经纪商投资组合升级。

亚洲地区金融类股普遍下挫,香港股市汇丰控股(HSBC Holdings)跌了1.9%,中国工商银行跌了2.3%。新加坡股市星展集团跌了1.5%。孟买股市ICICI Bank跌了1.3%。

恒生指数在七个交易日中出现第六天下跌,收于2月19日以来的最低水平,而上证综合指数在三个交易日中出现第二天上涨。

台湾行政院长吴敦义周二说,台湾希望在6月初与大陆签订贸易协定,取消两岸间的关税。台湾金融类股随之下滑,不过仍强于大盘。富邦金控(Fubon Financial)跌了1.3%,国泰金控(Cathay Financial)跌了1.4%。
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