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特朗普为IMF和世行带来变数
How a Trump presidency poses big questions for IMF and World Bank

2017-4-19 09:18| 发布者: 寒夜孤星| 查看: 101| 评论: 0

摘要: Central bankers and finance ministers from around the world are gathering in Washington this week to discuss the state of the global economy and how to keep another post-crisis recovery from stalling. ...
Central bankers and finance ministers from around the world are gathering in Washington this week to discuss the state of the global economy and how to keep another post-crisis recovery from stalling.

But also hanging over this week’s spring meetings of the International Monetary Fund and World Bank is the shadow of uncertainty. The US is the largest shareholder of both institutions and last year’s election of Donald Trump put an outspoken critic of multilateralism and the US-led liberal economic order in the White House.

Just what the new US administration’s plans are for the institutions is unclear, especially amid signs that moderates within the White House are exerting more influence over economic policy. But Mr Trump’s arrival in Washington is already having consequences for both the IMF and the World Bank and forcing their leaderships to adapt.

The IMF

The 2008 financial crisis and its aftermath gave new relevance to an IMF that for years had been facing question about its role in the global economy.

The fund has not only had a new raft of bailouts to administer but under the leadership of Christine Lagarde for the past five years it has also dived into subjects that might once have seemed taboo, such as inequality, the macroeconomics of gender equality and climate change. It has given emerging powers such as China a greater voice and, increasingly, a seal of approval.

Ms Lagarde and the IMF’s staff have also during the past year begun speaking more about the need to help those left behind by globalisation in the face of political earthquakes, such as the election of Mr Trump.

It all seemed easy when the Obama administration was on board. But in Mr Trump and his Republican administration the IMF now has a sceptic in the boardroom and there is plenty of potential for conflict.

Wilbur Ross, Mr Trump’s commerce secretary and trade tsar, has already taken exception to Ms Lagarde’s recent warnings about the damage a return to protectionism would do to the global economy.

Steven Mnuchin, the new Treasury secretary, has called for the IMF to step up its vigilance over currency manipulation, particularly in regard to China.

Though the Trump administration last week opted not to deliver on a campaign promise to label Beijing a currency manipulator, it has promised to scrutinise the topic more. In meetings with Ms Lagarde and other IMF officials, Mr Mnuchin and aides have focused on the currency issue so much that it has raised eyebrows at the fund, where the view is that there are more pressing concerns about the Chinese economy.

In response to the new administration’s other obsession — US bilateral trade deficits — some senior officials expect the IMF to give new emphasis to research on global imbalances.

Then there is the prickly question of Greece and its latest bailout, which Germany and other European shareholders want the IMF to join financially. A stand-off over what the IMF has labelled Athens’ “unsustainable” debt pile has consumed the relationship between the fund and its eurozone shareholders for the past two years.

It is unclear where the Trump administration will fall in the debate, though few expect it to block any IMF participation as some Republicans would like to see it do.

Some at the IMF have hopes that a $12bn bailout for Egypt, a strategically important country, may help the fund make its broader case to the Trump administration. Faced with questions about campaign links to Russia, those same people argue that Mr Trump will have to back the IMF’s bailout of Ukraine, though that too has been politically fraught for the fund.

The World Bank

If all had gone to plan, this week would be all about laying the groundwork for a capital increase and an expansive agenda for Jim Yong Kim, the World Bank’s president. But Mr Trump’s election has thrown that into doubt.

A surge in demand from ailing commodity exporters such as Nigeria drove lending at the bank’s main constituent part — the International Bank for Reconstruction and Development — to almost $30bn last year.

But officials say that unless the bank secures a capital increase from its shareholders, it will have to reduce lending. Few expect support for such a move from a Trump administration that has already announced its intention to cut funding to the World Bank and its sister regional development banks.

For that reason, the push for a capital increase is being put on hold at this week’s meetings, officials say.

“It is all about playing defence,” one senior official said of this week’s confab.

The need for that was made clear last month after Mr Trump nominated economist Adam Lerrick, who has called for the World Bank to stop lending to middle-income countries such as China, to a senior role at the US Treasury.

The answer for Mr Kim and others in the development arena lies in doubling down on a plan to focus on mobilising more private capital, something they clearly hope the new Republican administration can buy into.

“For every project we support, we have to ask the question, ‘Can the private sector finance this on commercial terms?’” the World Bank president told an audience in London last week.

But Mr Kim, who was nominated by the Obama administration and re-elected to a second five-year term last summer, has also pushed the World Bank into areas that may lead to clashes with the Trump administration. The bank is, for example, now the largest funder of climate-related investments in the world, Mr Kim boasted in the London speech — something that is unlikely to win points with a climate change sceptic such as the new US president.

本周,来自世界各地的央行行长和财长将在华盛顿召开会议,讨论全球经济状况,以及如何防止危机后的又一轮复苏陷入停滞。

但是,本周国际货币基金组织(IMF)和世界银行(World Bank)春季会议上空也笼罩着不确定的阴云。美国是这两个机构的最大股东。去年,唐纳德?特朗普(Donald Trump)当选为美国总统,使白宫里出现了一个直言不讳地批评多边主义和美国领导下的自由经济秩序的人。

目前还不清楚美国新政府对这两个机构有何种计划,特别是在有迹象表明白宫内温和派对经济政策的影响越来越大时。但特朗普上任,已对IMF和世行产生了影响,迫使它们的领导层适应。

IMF



2008年金融危机及其后果让IMF获得了新的重要性。多年来,IMF一直面临着对其在全球经济中所扮演角色的质疑。

IMF不但眼下有了新的大量纾困计划需要管理,而且在克里斯蒂娜?拉加德(Christine Lagarde)的领导下,在过去五年也投入了或许曾经看似禁忌的主题,如不平等、性别平等的宏观经济问题和气候变化。IMF给了中国等新兴大国更大的发言权,以及越来越多的认可。

过去一年里,在面对诸如特朗普当选等政治地震的情况下,拉加德和IMF工作人员也开始更多地谈论帮助被全球化落下的人群的必要性。

当奥巴马(Obama)政府上台时,一切看来都很轻松。但特朗普和他的共和党政府上台后,IMF的董事会里有了一位怀疑者,而且发生冲突的可能性很大。

特朗普的商务部长、“贸易沙皇”威尔伯?罗斯(Wilbur Ross)已对不久前拉加德有关重回保护主义将给全球经济造成危害的警告提出了异议。

新任财长史蒂文?姆努钦(Steven Mnuchin)呼吁IMF加强对汇率操纵的警惕,尤其是对中国。

虽然特朗普政府上周选择不履行把中国列为汇率操纵国的竞选承诺,但已承诺会更多审视该话题。在与拉加德和IMF其他官员的会谈中,姆努钦和助手们对汇率问题表现出如此的关注,以至于引起了IMF的不满。IMF认为,中国经济引起的担忧更为紧迫。

针对美国新政府执着的另一件事——美国双边贸易逆差,某些高级官员期望IMF更加重视研究全球失衡。

接着还有希腊以及最新希腊纾困计划这一棘手问题。德国和其他欧洲股东希望IMF拿出财力参与希腊纾困。过去两年里,围绕被IMF贴上“不可持续”标签的希腊债务的对峙,损害了IMF与其欧元区股东之间的关系。

目前尚不清楚特朗普政府将在辩论中采取何种立场,不过很少有人预计特朗普政府会像某些共和党人希望的那样阻止IMF的任何参与。

IMF的一些人士希望,为埃及这个具有战略重要性的国家提供120亿美元纾困,或许能帮助IMF让特朗普政府理解其更广泛的立场。同样一批人认为,面对在竞选过程中与俄罗斯有瓜葛的问题,特朗普将不得不支持IMF对乌克兰的纾困,尽管这在政治上也让IMF感到困扰。

世行

如果一切都按计划进行,那么本周会议的主题将是为增资和世行行长金墉(Jim Yong Kim)的一项扩大议程打下基础。但是,特朗普当选让这些陷入了疑问。

来自尼日利亚等陷入困境的大宗商品出口国的需求激增,导致世行主要组成部分国际复兴开发银行(IBRD)去年的贷款达到近300亿美元。

但官员们表示,除非世行从股东获得增资,否则将不得不减少放贷。很少有人预期特朗普政府会支持这么做。特朗普政府已宣布,打算削减对世行及其姊妹区域开发银行的资金支持。

官员们表示,出于这一原因,本周会议将搁置增资议题。

“一切都是围绕着构筑防线,”一位高级官员在谈起本周会议时表示。

在特朗普上月提名经济学家亚当?莱里克(Adam Lerrick)到美国财政部担任高级职务之后,这么做的必要性已变得很明显。莱里克呼吁世行不要再向中国等中等收入国家放贷。

对金墉和开发银行界的其他人士而言,答案在于加强重在调动更多私人资本的计划。他们显然希望美国共和党新政府能够接受该计划。

“对于支持的每个项目,我们都要问这个问题:‘私营部门能否按商业条件来提供资金?’”金墉上周在伦敦讲话时表示。

但是,经奥巴马政府提名担任世行行长、并于去年夏季获选连任第二个5年任期的金墉,也推动世行进入了可能与特朗普政府发生冲突的领域。例如,金墉在伦敦演讲时曾夸耀,目前世行是全球范围内为气候相关投资项目出资最多的机构。这是不太可能赢得美国新总统这样的气候变化怀疑者的支持的。

译者/何黎


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