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英镑贬值导致留学英国成本大降
Falling pound saves foreign students up to 20% on UK fees

2017-4-21 13:58| 发布者: 凡心| 查看: 274| 评论: 0

摘要: The fall in the pound’s value since Brexit has reduced the cost of UK degrees for international students by up to a fifth, but also made low-wage jobs less attractive to foreign workers, new analysis ...
The fall in the pound’s value since Brexit has reduced the cost of UK degrees for international students by up to a fifth, but also made low-wage jobs less attractive to foreign workers, new analysis has shown.

A study by the Oxford Migration Observatory suggests that the currency fluctuation will have a variety of different effects on future immigration flows depending on the reasons for a migrants coming to Britain.

International students, for instance, stand to make savings because the weak pound reduces the annual of £13,500 undergraduate tuition fees for overseas applicants. Chinese students will have experienced a 13 per cent cut in fees between the June Brexit referendum and the December 2016, while those paying in US dollars would have saved 17 per cent, and those using the South African rand by 20 per cent. This does not take into account further reductions in living costs.

The findings are significant because the currency shift may help to reverse the recent falls in the number of international students coming to study at British universities.

According to the most recent figures, immigration of students fell by nearly a quarter to 134,000 in the year to September 2016. In particular, number of Indian students arriving at UK universities halved under the last parliament.

On the other hand, the weak pound risks deterring foreign workers, particularly those in low-wage jobs. The Migration Observatory has calculated that Poles converting sterling into zloty would have received nearly 10 per cent less between the referendum and the end of 2016, while those sending Indian Rupees back home would have seen a fall of nearly 15 per cent.

Carlos Vargas-Silva, acting director of the Observatory, said there was no “hard evidence” that the currency change was affecting foreign workers in the UK, “but if you look at the sectors such as agriculture, employers are saying they have to pay more to attract the Eastern European workers they used before the currency change”.

“Currencies and exchange rates is just one of many factors affecting migrant behaviour, but if you come to work in a country then the value of the money you’re earning and how much you can send back is an important issue in your decision about where to work,” he said.

Farms and food processing companies have struggled to recruit eastern European workers post-Brexit. This is thought to be a combination of the effect of the weaker pound and a feeling of being less welcome in the UK since the referendum.

There is a historical precedent for currency changes affecting economic migrants. Research by the UK’s Department for Work and Pensions suggests that during the 2007-09 financial crisis, the sterling-zloty exchange rate was tightly correlated with the outflow of eastern European migrants. However, this was also a time when UK unemployment was rising sharply which may have been an additional factor.

In the short-term, Mr Vargas-Silva warned that the currency fluctuations alone are not likely to cause “an increase or decrease in immigration across the board”.

“The differing effects for each group mean this will make the UK more attractive for some migrants, and less for others,” he said. “If the devaluation of the pound turns out to be a long-term trend which lasts, then we will start to see subtle effects in the immigration figures.”

一项新研究表明,英国退欧公投以后英镑贬值,使得国际留学生在英国攻读学位的成本大为降低,降幅最多达到五分之一,同时也使得英国低薪工作对外籍员工的吸引力下降。

牛津大学移民观察(Oxford Migration Observatory)的研究表明,汇率波动将对未来移民流产生多种不同的影响,具体都有些什么影响要看移民来英国的原因。

例如,国际留学生将能节省一些钱。英国大学本科学费每年约1.35万英镑,英镑贬值会降低海外申请者的花费。从去年6月英国举行退欧公投到去年12月期间,中国留学生的学费相当于减少了13%,而那些以美元交学费的学生则节省了17%,以南非兰特交学费的学生节省了20%。这还未考虑在英国生活成本的降低。

这些发现具有重要意义,因为汇率变动可能有助于扭转近年来进入英国大学就读的国际留学生数量下滑的趋势。

最新数据显示,在截至2016年9月的一年,在英国的国际留学生人数为13.4万人,比上年减少了将近四分之一。特别是,在上届议会期间,进入英国大学就读的印度留学生人数减少了一半。

另一方面,英镑贬值可能让外国工人不愿来英工作,特别是低薪务工人员。牛津移民观察计算得出,从退欧公投到2016年12月,波兰人把英镑兑换为兹罗提换到的钱会少将近10%,而那些往国内汇印度卢比的人会损失将近15%。

牛津移民观察的代理主任卡洛斯?巴尔加斯-席尔瓦(Carlos Vargas-Silva)称,没有“确凿证据”显示汇率变化正在影响在英国工作的外国工人,“但如果你观察一些行业,比如农业,雇主都在说,为了吸引汇率变动前为他们干活的东欧工人,他们现在不得不支付更高的工资”。

他说:“货币和汇率只是影响移民行为的众多因素之一,但如果你来一个国家工作,那么你所赚的那种货币的价值以及你能寄回家多少,就成了你决定在哪工作时会考虑的重要因素。”

退欧公投后,英国的农场和食品加工企业很难招到东欧工人。这被认为是英镑贬值以及退欧公投后外国工人感觉不太受欢迎的共同作用使然。

汇率变化影响经济移民的情况是有历史先例的。英国工作与养老金部(Department for Work and Pensions)的研究表明,在2007-2009年金融危机期间,英镑对兹罗提汇率与东欧移民流出密切相关。不过那段时期英国失业率急剧上升,可能也是导致东欧移民流出的一个因素。

巴尔加斯-席尔瓦警告称,在短期内,单单汇率波动不太可能造成“整体移民增加或减少”。

“英镑贬值对各个群体的影响不同,意味着这将使得英国对某些移民的吸引力增加,对另外一些移民的吸引力降低,”他称,“如果英镑贬值成为持续存在的长期趋势,那么我们将从移民数据中看到具体的影响。”

译者/马柯斯


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